Holidaymakers heading for Spain, Greece, Italy and Turkey are most likely to see ‘significant impacts’ as soon as the May Bank Holiday
Experts have explained where and when you will see disruption
Travel experts say cancellations, delays and disruption caused by the Iran conflict could hit UK holidaymakers as soon as the May half-term holiday, just weeks away. Europe only has six weeks’ supply of jet fuel because of the Middle East conflict, the head of the world’s energy watchdog has warned.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned there could be flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain restricted by the Iran war. Mr Birol said this is “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced”.
Europe has “maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left”, he warned. If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the impact on Europe may be that “some of the flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel”, he added.
EasyJet reported that the conflict in the Middle East cost it about £25 million in higher jet fuel prices last month. A Government spokesperson said: “Most airlines purchase their aviation fuel in advance to offset price fluctuations, however we are aware of the impact to businesses, and are working with international allies to see a reopening of the Strait as soon as possible.”
Aviation expert Bernard Lavelle said foreign holidays during the May half-term “could be more of a challenge based on what we know now”. He told the Independent airlines are already “cancelling flights and restricting their schedules.”
Erika Josefsson of Airhelp.co.uk, said: “KLM has cut 160 flights scheduled for next month, and Lufthansa is shutting down its CityLine subsidiary early, grounding 27 older, less efficient aircraft to save fuel. Even if a flight isn’t cancelled, airlines are tacking on heavy fuel surcharges to combat kerosene prices that have nearly doubled since the conflict started.”
Luciano Armanasco, travel expert at Our Dolce Vita said: “You’re more likely to experience uneven service instead of an all-out shut down of operations.” He added: “Industry leaders (i.e., IATA) have already indicated that flight cancellations may start as early as the end of May if the supply pressures continue to tighten.”
Luciano said: “Low-cost and high-frequency carriers operating throughout Europe such as Ryanair, easyJet and Wizz Air will be the most vulnerable operationally. They operate very closely packed schedules with minimal ability to alter aircraft and/or fuel routing.
“Already we’re beginning to witness initial impacts with Ryanair indicating it’s possible to cancel as much as 5 – 10% of their flights in May, June and July should disruptions in fuel supplies continue. Larger network airlines such as Lufthansa and KLM are also reducing schedules, specifically on short-haul routes across continental Europe.
“Margins are thinner on short-hauls and rotations are more frequent.” He added: “I believe that there will be significant impacts on Mediterranean holiday routes, eg Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey. These rely heavily on short-haul flights from both the UK and continental Europe.
“Longer haul destinations are unlikely to experience large-scale cancellations, however they can expect higher fares and potentially reduced frequency if supply constraints tighten further.”
Luciano said the most important step[ holidaymakers can take is to book with companies that alllow changes and cancellations without heavy penalties. He added: “It would also be wise to consider booking earlier than later as airlines are warning of capacity reductions. Increased fuel costs will likely result in increased prices and reduced availability.”
