Falling international inbound travel to the US is expected to rebound this year, spurred by the joint hosting of the World Cup with Canada and Mexico.
International inbound travel spending fell 2.4% in 2025 to $175 billion but is expected to recover by 1.6% to $178 billion this year supported by increased travel tied to the football tournament, according to a new study for the US Travel Association.
However, that figure is still 18% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels on an inflation-adjusted basis. Growth is projected to accelerate in 2027 and beyond.
International visits to the US fell by 5.5% in 2025 to 68.3 million, driven primarily by reduced visits from Canada.
Inbound trips are expected to grow 3.4% to 70.6 million in 2026, driven by leisure travel and supported by major global events, including the World Cup in 2026 and summer Olympics in 2028.
But a return to 2019 levels, when there were 79 million visits, is not expected until 2029.
The recovery in 2026 is expected to be uneven across markets. Visits from Canada are projected to increase after a 21% decline in 2025.
“The pace of international inbound travel recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions, global sentiment and geopolitical stability,” the spring US travel forecast noted.
“Inbound international visits remain exposed to potential further increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment toward the United States in key source markets.”
Other risks outlined include a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and an extended period of depressed consumer sentiment and confidence.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across US cities, represents a “key opportunity” to accelerate recovery, the report said.
“At the same time, inbound travel’s slow rebound is widening the US travel trade deficit, which reached $72 billion in 2025 as outbound travel outpaces international visitation.”
Business travel spending is forecast to grow modestly, rising just 0.8% to $319 billion in 2026, as companies hold travel budgets steady while continuing to prioritise in-person meetings and events.
The forecast also flags downside risks including “persistent inflation and energy prices, geopolitical conflict, softening consumer confidence and barriers facing international visitors, including long visa wait times and global perceptions of the United States”.
The report, powered by modelling from Tourism Economics, projects steady, domestic-led growth for the US travel industry from this year, with total spending climbing 3.4% to $1.42 trillion in 2027 from a forecast record of $1.37 trillion this year.
Domestic travel remains the backbone of the sector, accounting for 87% of all travel spending. Domestic leisure is the only major travel segment to exceed pre-pandemic spending in real terms, with spending projected at $909 billion in 2026.
This provides proof that Americans are continuing to prioritise travel even as inflation, economic uncertainty and global instability weigh on household budgets, the report suggested.
US Travel Association research vice president Joshua Friedlander said: “Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy.
“Even with inflation and broader economic pressures, Americans are continuing to invest in experiences, reunions and business connections that happen through travel.”
