Brexit will remain “a headache” for travel, with EU border controls set to become “harder” and exacerbate the impact of prevailing “economic uncertainty”, Abta’s Travel Convention will be warned next month.
Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at Kings College London, suggested “it’s not an unmitigatedly bad picture” but said he will tell the Convention: “UK economic uncertainty, global uncertainty, plus Brexit, are going to make things more difficult.”
He told Travel Weekly: “There are good reasons for people to feel uncertain. The UK is experiencing significant economic and political headwinds. Concern about a rise in joblessness is weighing on the economy. We face challenges on housing, growth, education.
“[But] the hardest stuff is what is out of our control. No one has the first clue what Donald Trump will do next.”
Professor Menon noted: “In the face of an unpredictable US, China, India and Russia are becoming best mates. We might see a similar dynamic in Europe where the UK gets closer to Europe.”
However, asked how far the UK under Keir Starmer might go in achieving closer relations with the EU, he said: “Not much further. We’ve improved diplomatic links, made changes to the deal on agriculture and emissions trading. But the bare bones of the Brexit Boris Johnson left us with are going to shape the relationship.”
He argued: “Starmer has gone out of his way to work with the EU, but Brexit imposes constraints. The EU still insists we either join the single market or we don’t, so there are limits on how far the relationship can go. For all the warm words, it’s hard to find a way out.”
At the same time, he added: “The EU is wracked by problems. A lot of Western member states – France, Germany, Spain, Italy – face challenges from populism [and] there are tensions with some East European governments. Two problems which are coming to a head are how much member states are going to spend on defence and negotiations on the [next] seven-year budget.”
The EC is due to launch its new Entry-Exit System (EES) on October 12 and Professor Menon warned: “There is going to be chaos at the borders.”
He said: “People entering the EU for the first time under the new system will have their fingerprints taken. It’s going to make traveling more difficult, at least in the short term.”
Professor Menon warned that widespread dissatisfaction with mainstream political leaders would add to the uncertain outlook, noting: “There is a growing cynicism about government. Our first-past-the-post-electoral system, that is meant to guarantee stable, two-party politics, is giving us five-party politics and massive uncertainty [when] governments haven’t delivered meaningful growth in 15-20 years.”
The Travel Convention 2025 will be held in Calvià, Mallorca, on October 6-8.
To register and get more details, visit the Travel Convention website
