Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard have won the last five Tours de France between them and the superstar pair are set to go head to head again this month.
Pogacar is the reigning champion after blowing away his rivals 12 months ago and the Slovenian world champion has imposed his brilliance on just about every race since winning a third yellow jersey.
The reigning world champion is a red-hot favourite to continue on the path to legendary status in the sport – if he isn’t there already that is – but Vingegaard knows he is one of the only men to have ever beaten Pogacar at a Grand Tour and he goes into this year’s race following a much smoother and incident-free preparation than a year ago, when he was racing for the first time since a horrific crash in the spring.
Let battle re-commence.
Latest Tour de France betting odds
Here are bet365’s latest betting odds on the 2025 Tour de France general classification.
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change
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Who are the key contenders for the yellow jersey?
The betting for the 2025 Tour de France tells you pretty much all you need to know about who is likely to ride on to Paris’s iconic Champs-Elysees draped in yellow.
The Tour has been the dominion of two men, Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, since 2020 – and, barring accident or injury, few cycling fans can see that changing this July.
Pogacar’s procession over an admittedly undercooked Vingegaard last year – the Dane arrived at the Tour following a horror crash at the Tour of the Basque Country – took his yellow jersey tally to three and ended Vingegaard’s two-year reign in the process, but Vingegaard has had a much more routine prep this year.
The rivals first met at the Tour in 2021, when Vingegaard was second to Pogacar, and the pair have been one-two ever since.
The potential fly in the ointment is double Olympic champion Remco Evenepoel. A Grand Tour winner in his own right at the 2022 Vuelta, the Belgian finished third on his first try at the Tour last year before going on to claim gold in the road race and time-trial at the Paris Games.
That Evenepoel is as big as 12-1 and available at 24 on the Betfair Exchange illustrates the size of the next step he must take to get on terms with the top two, as does the 4min 21secs gap between the Belgian and race-winner Pogacar at June’s Criterium du Dauphine, where Evenepoel didn’t even finish third.
Florian Lipowitz did his best to keep tabs on Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard at the Criterium du DauphineCredit: Getty Images
Outsiders to watch
Third place at the Dauphine, always one of the strongest prep races for the Tour, went the way of Germany’s Florian Lipowitz, who was also second at Paris-Nice earlier this season.
The 24-year-old’s performance at the Dauphine would ordinarily have earned him number-one status at Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe, but the presence of five-time Grand Tours victor Primoz Roglic muddies the waters.
Roglic went off favourite for May’s Giro d’Italia but, as has been the case on numerous occasions throughout his career, nowhere more than at the Tour, luck was not on the Slovene’s side and a battered and bruised Roglic abandoned the race on stage 16.
Portugal’s Joao Almeida has had an excellent campaign, winning the general classification at the Tour de Suisse, Tour of Romandie and Tour of the Basque Country, but Pogacar is the only sheriff in town at UAE Team Emirates and Almeida knows that.
All roads lead to the summit of Mont Ventoux on stage 16Credit: AFP via Getty Images
Key stages
Stage seven – Saint-Malo to Mur-de-Bretagne Guerledan (196.6km)
Mathieu van der Poel launched a daring attack on the first of two ascents of the mighty Mur-de-Bretagne in 2021 and more fireworks seem certain on the Mur four years on. MVDP will be targeting the stage again but it could also bring the yellow-jersey contenders out of hiding for the first time in the race.
Stage 12 – Auch to Hautacam (180.6km)
The first stage in the Pyrenees is also the first of this year’s race to end with a summit finish so it should make for compelling racing. It is the first of three successive mountain tests and the GC boys could keep their powder dry for the next day’s mountain time-trial, although with Pogacar around nothing is off the table.
Stage 16 – Montpellier to Mont Ventoux (171.5km)
There is unlikely to be much to see in the first 133 kilometers of stage 16, with no climbs or obstacles of note. But then the riders hit the slopes of the fearsome Mont Ventoux, which will host its first summit finish in nine years, and it could be every man for himself.
Stage 18 – Vif to Col de la Loze (171.5km)
The Col de la Loze will bring back terrible memories for Pogacar, who cracked in almighty fashion two years ago as Vingegaard waltzed up the Alpine giant to leave the destination of the yellow jersey in no doubt.
Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard show their mutual respect before a stage last yearCredit: Getty Images
Prediction & analysis
The case for Pogacar is clear: he is quite simply the best around and has been nigh on unbeatable since coming second to Vingegaard at the Tour two years ago.
Pogacar entered that Tour under a slight injury cloud after breaking his wrist at Liege-Bastogne-Liege but everything has gone swimmingly for the Slovene ever since.
He is a commanding force on almost any terrain and his exploits in 2024, when he won cycling’s triple crown of the Giro d’Italia, Tour and World Championship road race, as well as a slew of Classics, combined to shape one of the most dominant 12 months of any sportsman in history.
He has carried on in much the same vein this year, winning the GC at the Tour of the UAE and last month’s Criterium du Dauphine, where he beat Vingegaard into second, and has no problem fighting his own corner when the chips are down.
Scarily for the rest, Pogacar doesn’t have the Giro in his legs this year so should be even fresher for the challenges ahead.
Vingegaard’s preparation for this year’s race has been much smoother. He has never been one to over-race in the first half of the season so the fact that he has taken part in just three races this year should also not be a concern.
He certainly showed up well enough at the Dauphine, where he was second to Pogacar overall and finished as runner-up in five of the eight stages, including when taking 28 seconds out of his great rival in the time trial.
And, crucially, he knows he is just about the only man who has beaten Pogacar in a Grand Tour. A 2mins 43secs winning margin over the Slovene in 2022 was increased by almost five minutes a year later, when his Visma–Lease-a-Bike team demonstrated their tactical and physical strength, most significantly on the Col de la Loze, where Vingegaard completely cracked Pogacar in 2023.
A return to that Alpine beast on stage 18 could resurface a few demons in the reigning champion and the grouping of the mountain stages this year between stages ten and 19 will allow the expert climber to put sustained pressure on Pogacar day after day.
Expert verdict & best bet
The battle lines have been drawn and the Tour’s latest big rivalry is firmly on.
Since being acquainted at the Tour in 2021, a year after Pogacar had claimed his first yellow jersey in dramatic fashion on the penultimate stage, Vingegaard and the Slovene have finished one-two each year and the forecast looks the strongest option.
Evenepoel was third last year but was nine minutes off race winner Pogacar and the Belgian has had a mixed season after a training-ride crash, while Lipowitz, who finished above Evenepoel at the Dauphine, is untested at this level.
So it looks to be between the big two and preference has to be for Pogacar, who put time into Vingegaard on both mountain stages at the Dauphine and has looked on another level since losing the 2023 Tour to his great rival.
T Pogacar-J Vingegaard straight forecast
4pts 8-11 general
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Tour de France stage-by-stage guide
| Route (distance) | Type | Description | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | Lille to Lille (185km) | Flat | Nothing is given at the Tour but it would be a huge surprise if the opening stage did not end in a sprint finish |
| Stage 2 | Lauwin-Planque to Boulogne-sur-Mer (209km) | Hilly | A punchy day for Classics specialists with a kilometre long drag to the finish set to determine stage honours |
| Stage 3 | Valenciennes to Dunkirk (178km) | Flat | A sprint stage all day long on paper but the threat of crosswinds should not be underestimated |
| Stage 4 | Amiens to Rouen (174km) | Hilly | An up-and-down day which should be decided inside the final 40km, which features five categorised climbs |
| Stage 5 | Caen (33km) | Time trial | Flat and fast. Expect time-trial specialists such as world champion Remco Evenepoel to boss this TT |
| Stage 6 | Bayeux to Vire Normandie (202km) | Hilly | The rugged terrain of Normandy should make for an exciting stage, which culminates in a punishing finale |
| Stage 7 | Saint-Malo to Guerledan (197km) | Hilly | A double ascent of the Mur de Bretagne, including at the finish, should bring puncheurs to the fore |
| Stage 8 | St-Meen-le-Grand to Laval (171km) | Flat | Nothing to see here. A transitional stage which will almost certainly end in a bunch sprint finish |
| Stage 9 | Chinon to Chateauroux (174km) | Flat | Chateauroux hosted three of Mark Cavendish’s 35 Tour wins, and another sprinter should be victorious |
| Stage 10 | Ennezat to Mont-Dore (165km) | Mountain | An extended first week concludes with a brute of a stage on France’s national holiday, Bastille Day |
| Stage 11 | Toulouse to Toulouse (156km) | Flat | After a well-earned rest day, the Tour resumes with another chance for sprinters, albeit ones who can climb |
| Stage 12 | Auch to Hautacam (180km) | Mountain | The Pyrenees await and we should get a real battle between the GC favourites on the first summit finish |
| Stage 13 | Loudenvielle to Peyragudes (11km) | Mountain TT | Time gaps will be magnified on this short but punishing mountain TT up the Col de Peyresourde |
| Stage 14 | Pau to Superbagneres (183km) | Mountain | Regular Tour stopping point Pau opens another big day in the Pyrenees which may suit the breakaway |
| Stage 15 | Muret to Carcassonne (169km) | Hilly | An intriguing parcours which could suit any number of rider styles – although climbing qualities are a must |
| Stage 16 | Montpellier to Mont Ventoux (172km) | Mountain | All roads lead to the Giant of Provence, where the GC heavyweights are set to do battle |
| Stage 17 | Bollene to Valence (160km) | Flat | Some light relief for the peloton after days of battling in the mountains. One for the fast men |
| Stage 18 | Vif to Courcheval (171km) | Mountain | Three super-category climbs and a summit finish make this one of the hardest days of the 2025 Tour |
| Stage 19 | Albertville to La Plagne (130km) | Mountain | Stage honours may go to the break but the final true mountain stage may determine this year’s race winner |
| Stage 20 | Nantua to Pontarlier (184km) | Hilly | Less punishing that what has gone before but a punchy route which should make for exciting viewing |
| Stage 21 | Mantes-la-Ville to Paris Champs-Elysees (132km) | Flat | After a year away, the race ends in its spiritual home in Paris, where the sprinters will take centre stage |
Scroll >>> table to view
Compiled by Matthew Ireland
Tour de France FAQs
When is the 2025 Tour de France?
The 112th Tour de France begins on Saturday, July 5 in Lille and concludes on the Champs-Elysees in Paris on Sunday, July 27.
Who are the favourites to win the 2025 Tour de France?
Tadej Pogacar is the odds-on favourite to win a fourth yellow jersey after winning the Tour in 2020, 2021 and last year, when he beat two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard by over six minutes.
Who is the defending Tour de France champion?
Slovenia’s world champion Tadej Pogacar won a third Tour de France title in 2024 and lines up as the overwhelming favourite.
Why does the Tour de France leader wear a yellow jersey?
The leader of the Tour de France wears a yellow jersey, or the maillot jaune, to signify their status at the top of the general classification. Yellow was chosen because the race’s original sponsor, L’Auto, was printed on yellow paper.
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